Since I already made Oscar predictions for fantasy baseball draft order (yes, you read that right), I figured I'd make it public to see how dumb or smart I really am with the awards business. Plus, I've seen most of these movies.
Best Picture
I believe the Best Picture is picked by a ranking system. Theoretically, a picture get could only get 2nd place votes and still win. Thus, my pick will operate on that assumption. It appears, unlike most years, where there's one likely choice (La La Land last year) and one longshot (Moonlight), this year has five movies with a somewhat legitimate chance. That's partially because of the ranking system.
My least favorite of the 9 choices and one of the "favorites" is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. I don't think this will win because it's very divisive. I also don't like it. So this is an easy one for me not to pick. The other "favorite" is probably The Shape of Water, because it's also the favorite to have the best director. The two less likely choices are Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name.
It really doesn't seem like there's a clear frontrunner here from what I've read so I'll just go with my choice, Get Out. It's the most popular of the other three choices (since I don't think Shape of Water will win) and I think it's the best.
My guess: Get Out
My pick: Get Out
Actor in Leading Role
Well this category is boring, because 1) I haven't seen three of these movies and 2) it seems like there's going to be an obvious winner. Despite the fact that I haven't seen Darkest Hour, I'm going with Gary Oldman because he's won most of the awards before the Oscars. I could go with the darkhorse Timothee Chalamet, but come on. Never won before Gary Oldman in prosthetics playing a famous historical figure is the easiest choice ever as far as predictions go.
My guess: Darkest Hour
My pick: Timothee Chalamet
Actress in Leading Role
This is one of those categories where making a predictions post is already more pointless than normal. It's going to be Frances McDormand. I'm fine with this. She definitely wasn't what I disliked about Three Billboards. I would probably choose Sally Hawkins here because one of the main components of acting - speaking - is taken away from her the whole movie. She's also in a better movie, which I won't pretend has no impact on my choices.
My guess: Frances McDormand
My pick: Sally Hawkins
Actor in a Supporting Role
Another award where I'm forced to pick Three Billboards, although in this guess I'm a little more perplexed why he's a favorite. I get McDormand. If I liked the movie more (or at all), I'm sure I'd agree. But Sam Rockwell is... fine? His character is poorly written, which hurts his ability to act. I mean that's not his fault, but that's no reason to give him the award. I loved Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water, but I'll have to go with William Dafoe as my personal preference since he's very much not William Dafoe. He plays an ordinary guy and has to act with a cast of non-actors for the most part.
My guess: Sam Rockwell
My pick: William Dafoe
Actress in a Supporting Role
With most of these picks, I'm fine with not having seen every movie as it doesn't seem to harm my ability to correctly guess the winner. This is not one of those categories. I have not seen I, Tonya. Allison Janney is very much the favorite. I'm sure she's very good in this, but Laurie Metcalf is a performance that's hard for me to see topped. So my preference is not exactly based on all the information.
My guess: Allison Janney
My pick: Laurie Metcalf
Writing (Original Screenplay)
With the caveat that I've only seen two of the five movies nominated, this one is easy. Call Me By Your Name, which I have seen, is going to be the winner and probably should. I've also seen Logan, which I loved, but the writing didn't necessarily stick out to me in the way Call Me By Your Name's did.
My guess: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
My pick: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Writing (Original Screenplay)
This category is pretty stacked. The Big Sick is great and I wouldn't mind if it won here because it doesn't appear to be nominated elsewhere. Lady Bird and Get Out are both nominated in Best Picture and seemingly have a small chance. But if I'm going to pick Get Out for the Best Picture, I got to stick with it here.
My guess: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
My pick: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Directing
At first glance, this category is harder than it appears. It stands to reason that the Best Picture being up for grabs means that the Best Director would be up for grabs too. All five nominees are also Best Picture nominees, including three with legitimate chances. But Guillermo del Toro seems to have pretty much emerged as the favorite here. I think I would have to go with Dunkirk, because that movie was hard to watch in a way more war movies should be.
My guess: Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water)
My pick: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Cinematography
I actually am not sure what the consensus is on this pick, but this is an easy decision because the movie is so damn beautiful and the man in question has been nominated FOURTEEN times without winning. Just give Roger Deakins an Oscar already.
My guess: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
My pick: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner (2049)
Animated Feature Film
Full disclosure: I haven't seen a single one of these films. Doesn't mean this isn't an easy choice though.
My guess: Coco
My pick: Coco (I'm guessing)
The Sound Awards (Mix, Editing)
I'm giving both of these awards to Dunkirk, because sound plays a very important role in making me as miserable as possible watching it. At this point, my guess and pick are the same so I will stop doing that.
Best Sound Mix: Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Animated Short
Again, haven't actually seen any of these, so I'm going to be lame and vote for the one Kobe Bryant is involved with because that is something the Academy would do.
Dear Basketball
Costume Design
Just going to throw it out there that a movie that is literally about costume design is going to win this one. It's also a period piece so that never hurts.
The Phantom Thread
Documentary
I'm not even going to pretend that I am doing anything other than picking these two because of what websites told me about them. I don't even remember Icarus, but at least I know Heaven is a Traffic Jam is set in LA and that's why I picked it.
Feature: Icarus
Short Subject: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Film Editing
A flawed, but enjoyable movie, I think this should probably go to Baby Driver, but I think it's going to Dunkirk
Dunkirk
Foreign Language
Sorry, I haven't seen any of these movies either.
A Fantastic Woman
Makeup and Hairstyling
Yeah this one is going to go to the movie that made Gary Oldman look like Winston Churchill.
The Darkest Hour
Music (Original Score)
I have seen literally all of these movies and I can't say I remember the original score that much of any of them. Well that's not completely true. I definitely remember The Last Jedi and Dunkirk, but both of those are extremely up both John Williams and Hans Zimmer's alleys that I don't feel like they deserve an award for it. So my pick is...
Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
Music (Original Song)
This seems very much like a category a movie like Coco would win so
"Remember Me" - from Coco
Production Design
Shape of Water
Visual Effects
Both because I think it deserves it and because it seems like the least blockbuster of all five nominees (because it bombed), I'm going with Blade Runner 2049 on this one.
